The Pacers are on a modest two-game winning streak but seeing that those wins came against New York and Sacramento, it is hardly a worry. After a 5-5 start to the season, Indiana is just 7-16 over its last 23 games and to no ones surprise it is struggling against the better teams from its schedule. The Pacers are 4-14 against the top 16 in the NBA and this is not a good spot as it is the beginning of a brutal five-game west coast trip. Indiana is 2-8-1 ATS this season following a win.

The Nuggets are known for a strong offense and a weak defense but the Pacers have been even worse in that latter category. Indiana is allowing 104.9 ppg which is 4th worst in the league. That average is even worse of late. After allowing a very respectable 96.3 ppg through the first 10 games, the Pacers have allowed 108.7 ppg since then, a span covering 23 games including 109.9 ppg in their last 14 games. Denver is averaging 109.8 ppg through its last five games and will take advantage of that porous defense.

Denver is 6-1 ATS this season against really bad teams that have only won between 25 and 40 percent of their games. Also, the Nuggets are 15-4 ATS in home games against the Eastern Conference over the last two seasons with the scoring margin in those games being a solid +13.6 ppg. Indiana has struggled against the elite teams as mentioned and it is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games against teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600. Denver is also 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. 7* Denver Nuggets

Georgetown played its first road game of the season last Monday at Connecticut where it won going away. Winning another road game in a tougher venue in this conference will be a challenge and it simply will not happen. Last season, the Hoyas won two consecutive Big East games on the road on three different occasions but those were against Rutgers and DePaul, West Virginia and St. John’s and finally Providence and Marquette. Those are not exactly the most challenging pairs.

Notre Dame is 2nd nationally with just 9.2 turnovers per game and it is 1st in the country in assist/turnover ratio at 2.01. That is first by a large margin and the Irish are the only team in Division I with a ratio above 2.00. The Irish started very slow at the free throw line but they have picked it up recently as they have shot 73.2 percent from the charity stripe over their last five games. Georgetown has been outrebounded by seven rpg over the last five games while Notre Dame is +5.2 in margin over that same span.

Georgetown is shooting 47.8 percent on the season but it is going to find the going tough here. The Irish are allowing opponents to shoot 37.1 percent at home and during the 43-game home winning streak, they are allowing just 39.4 percent. Only three teams have surpassed 50 percent and they have outscored the opposition by 20.1 ppg while 31 of those 43 games have been won by at least 10 points. Notre Dame is the only school in Big East history to finish undefeated at home in consecutive seasons. 7* Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Texas has something to prove. The Longhorns thought they should have been in the BSC Championship instead of Oklahoma, who they actually beat outright, and I agree with it. The BCS rankings put the Sooners in the title game and that should never have happened as the tiebreaker in the Big XII was a joke. Nevertheless, here the Longhorns are and they still have an outside shot as a co-National Championship. They can win big here and if Florida wins an ugly game over Oklahoma, the AP may take that into consideration.

Texas was outgained by Texas Tech and that was the only time this season that it was outgained by the opposition. The main reason was an offense that ranked 9th in the nation including 2nd in passing efficiency. That is going to be key against the Buckeyes defense that finished 7th in the country in total defense and 6th in scoring defense. The schedule needs to be taken into consideration however as the Buckeyes played offenses ranked 58th, 12th, 27th, 91st, 37th, 48th, 74th, 15th, 61st, 19th and 109th. Not very impressive.

I am not sold on the Ohio St. offense either. The running game is solid as the Buckeyes finished 26th in rushing offense but no passing game put the Buckeyes a below average 79th in total offense That is not good sign as the Longhorns rushing defense is 2nd in the nation, allowing just 73.6 ypg on 2.8 ypg. Overall, the running game is +1.6 ypc in margin compared to +0.9 for the Buckeyes. Texas is also tops in the country in sacks while Ohio St. is 82nd in sacks allowed.

The Ohio St. passing defense is 7th in the country but Texas will be able to get through the unit as it is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games against defenses that allow 5.25 or less ypa. The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after a win by 21 or more points while Ohio St. is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after the same scenario. The Buckeyes are on a 0-4 ATS run against non-conference teams while Texas is 6-0 in its last six against non-conference foes. The Longhorns roll on Monday. 8* Texas Longhorns

Ohio State cannot afford to get behind in this game. If they do, you can turn out the lights early in this match-up. Texas has a lot more to prove than Ohio State.

Texas wants to prove that they belonged in The Big 12 Championship Game. The public is betting Ohio State too, and they will be wrong. Throw out any facts and stats here, this game is all about Texas pride. Texas will win by 14 points as my 100 STAR FIESTA BOWL PLAY !

Any bowl favorite of 9.0 or less that is coming off of BB favorite ATS wins, the last of which they covered by 9.5 points or less, and they have a winning percentage of better than .900 is 7-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The favorite has won those 7 games by an average of 17.6 points per game. Play on Texas minus the points as a 15* Top Play selection.

(10) Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2, 5-6 ATS) vs. (3) Texas Longhorns (11-1, 9-3 ATS) Fox
Monday, January 05 - 8:15 PM EST

5 units on Texas Longhorns

Play AGAINST OHIO ST against the spread in Road games in a bowl game
The record is 5 Wins and 10 Losses since 1992 (-6.00 units)

Oddsmakers currently have the Longhorns listed as 8-point favorites versus the Buckeyes, while the game's total is sitting at 51½.

Terrelle Pryor led Ohio State with two touchdown passes to beat Michigan 42-7 in Week 13.

The Buckeyes covered the 20.5-point spread, while the final score played OVER the posted total of 45.5.

Colt McCoy threw two TD passes and ran for another pair in helping lift Texas to a 49-9 win over Texas A&M last time out. Texas covered the 35-point spread, while the 57 points fell UNDER the posted total of 67.

McCoy completed 23-of-28 for 311 yards for Texas. Cody Johnson ran for 108 yards with two touchdowns in the win.

The Longhorns are 10-3 ATS overall, 6-0 in non-conference games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game, 6-1 at neutral sites, 7-1 after a spread-cover, 8-2 after a SU win and 9-3 as a chalk.

The Buckeyes have cashed in four of their last five games and are on a 4-1 ATS run against Big 12 foes, but they also carry negative Pointspread trends of 0-4 outside the Big Ten, 2-8 following a SU win of more than 20 points and 1-4 on Mondays, and they are on an 0-4 SU and ATS slide against Top 10 opposition.

The Big 10 conference is weak, and the conference record in the Bowl games to date is 1-5! The Big 12 is a better conference and Texas the only team to beat might Oklahoma, on a neutral field by 10 points. The Longhorns motivation in a snub by the Big 12 to play for a title in conference and a national title, so this is their shot to make a huge statement. A fast and prolific offense in the Longhorns, just like USC when Ohio State got blown out of the water, is simply too much for the OSU defense to keep pace with, and not confident QB Pryor for OSU is near the QB that McCoy is by any stretch. Texas's run defense is stiff, and overall team speed and strength of schedule favor the Longhormns here for a double digit win.

Play 1 Unit on Texas

Wake Forest has lived on turnovers this year on route to a 7-5 SU records. But their spread record was just a poor 5-7 ATS. Navy on the other had a 8-4 SU & 7-5 ATS. They also only turned the ball over just 13 times this year. Wake Forest was 4-5 vs. bowl teams this year. Navy was 4-3.

NAVY + 3 OVER WAKE FOREST IS A 30 STAR PLAY

Colorado State won their final two games of the season to get this bowl invite. Fresno State was 7-5 SU but a horrible 2-10 ATS record. Fresno St coach Pat Hill will have his team in a nasty mood here and win by 10 points.

FRESNO ST -2.5 OVER COLORADO IS A 50 STAR PLAY

Double digit bowl favorites this early in the bowl season have faired poorly the last five years. I simple do not trust either Memphis in this match-up. Either should you. South Florida can put points up on board, and they should keep this game from being close. Go slow on this one.

MEMPHIS +12.5 OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IS A 30 STAR PLAY.

BYU was expecting a better bowl invite than this one in the Sin City of Las Vegas. BYU only lost to undefeated Utah on the road by four points, and now you are getting points. This is a strong play.

BYU +3 OVER ARIZONA IS A 100 STAR PLAY.

Troy comes from the Sun Belt Conference. They were the bottom rated conference power wise this year, but don't be fooled by that. This is a team that had LSU beat on road before losing by just 9 points. Southern Miss is just happy to be in New Orleans. This bowl means much more to Troy than to Southerm Miss. The play is Troy.

TROY -4 OVER SOUTHERN MISS IS A 50 STAR PLAY.

In this match-up anything can happen. Boise State is 12-0 and TCU is 10-2. The Mountain West Conference really wasn't a power conference, but neither was the WAC. This game could go either way, and is a lower rated bowl play for me because either team could win easy here. I have to make a choice, and I'll go with the better offense, and that is Boise State.

BOISE ST +2.5 OVER TCU IS A 30 STAR PLAY.

The Rainbows a favorite over The Irish, I don't think so. I just wonder what Notre Dame team will show up in this game. Hawaii QB Greg Alexander showed me he's a gamer when Hawaii almost beat Cincinnati. Notre Dame was 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS vs. teams playing bowl games this year. Hawaii was 3-4 SU but 5-2 ATS. Go easy on this game. If ND becomes the favorite, pass here.

NOTRE DAME +2 OVER HAWAII IS A 30 PLAY

Who wants to be sent from Florida to Detroit to spend Christmas? FA doesn't belong being in a bowl game. I'll keep this short. Central Michigan has won and covered the past two Motor City Bowls. I don't see that changing.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN-7 OVER FLORIDA AT IS A 30 STAR PLAY

First of all Butch Davis has done a great job a North Carolina. They were 6-3 SU vs. bowl teams this year. West Virginia was 3-3 SU. The crowd favors the ACC team here too. ACC teams have won 5 of the last 6 Meineke Bowl games. My pick.

NORTH CAROLINA PK OVER WEST VIRGINIA 50 STAR PLAY

Wisconsin ended their Big 10 season going 3-1, but it's that 36-35 victory vs. Cal-Poly at home that worries me in this match-up. Add this fact, ACC teams have won 5 straight Champs Sports Bowls. The line on this game should be Florida State -7. The streak continues.

FLORIDA STATE -5 OVER WISCONSIN IS A 30 PLAY

There is an overlay in this match-up 2 points on Cal. Will it matter? The Hurricanes have more speed than Cal, and the underdog in this bowl game has covered 4 of the last 6. Cal was just 1-4 vs. bowl teams this year. Miami was just 2-5. Don't go crazy on this game either.

MIAMI-FLA +7 OVER CALIFORNIA IS A 30 STAR PLAY

Here's another bowl game where the one team should be at home. Northern Illinois ended their season 1-3 SU, and being shut out at home 16-0 by Navy in their last game of the season. Louisiana Tech is a different story. They ended their season going 4-1 SU. Tech can run the ball, and Northern Illinois has trouble stopping it.

LOUISIANA TECH +1.5 OVER NORTHERN ILL IS A 30 STAR PLAY

NC State ended their season on a 4-0 run SU & ATS. Why is Rutgers a TD favorite in this match-up? Because Rutgers is on a big roll. They have won six games in a row by an average margin of 22 points. This could be a big blow out too. I am going to lay the points with the boys from New Jersey.

RUTGERS -7 OVER NC STATE IS A 100 STAR PLAY

This is the biggest line on any bowl game this year. I don't know why seeing how bad Missouri played in the Big 12 Championship Game. Northwestern is smart team, that plays a spread offense. They were also 4-1 ATS on the road this year. Missouri's defense gave up an average of 35 points per game in their last five games played, and they are a 13.5 favorite here? I think not.

NORTHWESTERN +13.5 OVER MISSOURI IS A 50 STAR PLAY

A WAC school favorite over an ACC school. The reason is because Nevada has played on this field before. One team doesn't belong in a bowl game. That team is Maryland. They ended their season with two losses, and Nevada has a great offense. How about the weather? Will it cold? I think Maryland really doesn't want to be in Boise Idaho and Nevada should cover this game. If Nevada becomes the dog, up this play to a 100 STAR PLAY.

NEVADA -1 OVER MARYLAND IS A 30 STAR PLAY.

Believe it or not this should be a fun game to watch. Both teams can't play a lick of defense. So I am not going out on a limb to predict a huge winner. This is a home game for Rice. The favorites in this bowl are 5-0-1 in the last 6 played.

RICE -3 OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN IS A 30 STAR PLAY.

The Ducks in my opinion are going to quack all over the Cowboys in this game. You will see how a good Pac-10 team can exploit a bad Big 12 defense. 7 times Oklahoma State has given up 24 or more points in a game. 10 times this Oregon has scored more than 30 points in a game. This will be a wild game to watch too.

OREGON +3 OVER OKLAHOMA STATE IS A 50 STAR PLAY

Houston was 7-5 this year SU. They were 2-4 SU vs. bowl teams. They also don't play much defense. They gave up 30 or more points 7 times this year. Air Force has already beat Houston this year 31-28. The Fly Boys had zero yards passing, and 380 yards rushing. The only situations that keeps me from make this a bigger play is that Air Force lost their last 2 games of the season, but they did meet TCU & BYU in those games. The wrong team is the favorite, and that puts me on the dog in this match-up. it must be +2.5.

AIR FORCE +2.5 OVER HOUSTON IS A 100 STAR PLAY.

This should be a very close match-up. Oregon was 5-2 ATS vs. bowl teams. Pittsburgh was 5-4 ATS vs. bowl teams. The line is dead solid perfect. The team that makes the least will win and cover. The weather will be beautiful.

OREGON STATE -3 OVER PITTSBURGH IS A 30 STAR PLAY

This will be a defensive battle. Both teams don't score a lot points. Together they only scored over 30 points in 6 games this year. Here's another even match-up where the line is dead solid perfect. BC is good at making other teams turn the ball over, as they were a plus 6 in turnovers this year. BC has a slight edge in offense, and also in the defense department.

BOSTON COLLEGE -3.5 OVER VANDERBILT IS A 30 STAR PLAY